Disease X, the risk of a new pandemic. The alarm has been raised by the WHO which has identified this unknown pathogen as the potential cause of the next major pandemic that could strike at any time and kill millions more people than Covid. Anthony Fauci, the director of the United States National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases, stated that the concept of Disease X would encourage WHO projects to focus their research efforts on entire classes of viruses (for example, flaviviruses), rather than just individual strains (for example, Zika virus), thus improving WHO's ability to respond to unforeseen strains. Here is what we know about this new (hypothetical) disease.
What is it
As reported by CEPI (a global partnership working to accelerate the development of vaccines and other biological countermeasures against epidemic and pandemic threats), Disease X is the name given by scientists and the World Health Organization to an unknown pathogen that could emerge in the future and cause a severe epidemic or pandemic at an international level. In February 2018, Disease X was included in the updated WHO Blueprint list of diseases for which research and development should be an international priority.
What we know and mortality
Disease X itself is hypothetical: it does not exist. But the concept of Disease X describes a very real and growing threat to human health – which the world must be better prepared to respond to. The most recent Disease X to emerge was the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. Because we were not adequately prepared to defend ourselves, COVID-19 spread rapidly and caused a deadly pandemic, killing millions of people worldwide. Safe and effective vaccines have significantly reduced the mortality and morbidity of COVID-19, saving about 20 million lives in the first year since their introduction.
New pandemic?
Although it is likely that the next pandemic threat could emerge as a new Disease X, there is also the risk that known pathogens could mutate and/or re-emerge and then spread in international epidemics – as happened with the Chikungunya virus – or pandemics.
Vaccines and treatments
Just because we cannot precisely predict its characteristics or the timing of its arrival, does not mean we cannot plan for Disease X. By knowing as much as possible about the approximately 25 viral families most likely to harbor a new Disease X, scientists can gain an advantage in creating new medical defenses such as vaccines and treatments that can be rapidly adapted to target a new viral disease.
The Capua Alarm
Another pandemic is inevitable. The WHO talks about Disease X. Why? «I keep saying that we are part of a complex system. Pandemics occur regularly over time - Ilaria Capua, a world-renowned virologist, responded thus in an interview with 'Il Resto del Carlino' - I'm sorry to say, but just because we've had the Covid one doesn't mean we're set for the next two hundred years. Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that. The Disease X that WHO talks about is a term to say that something, sooner or later, will come. We don't know what, but it will happen. And it could be even more aggressive than Covid».
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